米10月中古住宅販売10%Up
Update米10月中古住宅販売、前月:557万件、予想:570万件、10月結果:610万件 前月比:+10.1%、 前年比:+23.5% Existing Home Salesこれは、一昨日紹介した、10月住宅販売分析を参照、*初回購入者のFHAローンでもつ米住宅市場(10月データから)押えるべきは、安値買いの投資家と、補助金狙い/FHAローンの初回購入者で、6割以上を占めている、と言うこと、とてもまともな住宅市場ではない、 まっ、株はそんなこと関係なく上がるかもしれないが、 *水曜日の新築販売に注目、 今日の中古販売と比べると面白いかも、 (参考)Highlights The outlook for the housing sector is turning higher. Existing home sales came in at a much higher-than-expected annual rate of 6.10 million, up a record 10.1 percent in October (September revised slightly lower to 5.54 million). The year-on-year rate, at plus 23.5 percent, is also a record (series begins in 1999).年率610万戸で前年比23.5%Upはレコード記録、October's 6.10 million rate, which is far outside even the highest estimates, was driven by this month's expiration of first-time buyer credits. But the National Association of Realtors, which compile the data, notes that sales in months as far ahead as January may also get a boost from the last minute rush. New stimulus measures, which have been extended and expanded, point of course to a further boost.今回の販売数は初回購入者によって膨らんだ、政府の刺激策で来年一月までこのラッシュは続きそう、Supply on the market fell 136,000 units to 3.57 million, which is equal to seven months of supply vs. 8.0 months in September and 10.2 months a year ago. The NAR estimates that 6.0 months of supply is consistent with price stability. Prices are still falling in what is the only negative in the report. The median price fell 1.6 percent to $173,000, down 7.1 percent year-on-year.在庫は13.6万戸減少して、357万戸、(約7ヶ月分、前年同期は10.2ヶ月分だった)中古価格は下落継続で17.3万ドル(前年比-7.1%、)Government stimulus is having a big impact on the housing market, pulling future sales into current months. Talk this morning that policy makers may extend buybacks of mortgage-backed securities further underscores the depth of government involvement in housing. Stocks and commodities moved higher in immediate reaction to today's report. New home sales will be posted tomorrow. なんと言っても、政府の補助策が効いている、又FEDのMBS買上げ延長のニュースも株価に好都合、まもなく新築販売が発表される、最終更新日時 2009年11月24日 1時7分25秒 追記)こちらは、新築と中古の比較、http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SwrZUjvNB_I/AAAAAAAAG3M/vrZUc6VgeIY/s1600/DistressingGapOct1.jpg 青が中古、赤が新築、普通は中古と新築は同期する、(2006年まで)が政府の補助/FHAローンはそれを歪めてしまった、