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投資信託で「ブル型」とか「ベア型」とかってあるけど、「ブル」とか「ベア」ってどういう意味？ 相場の先行きに対する予想を表しています。英語で雄牛を意味する「ブル」は相場に対して強気を、クマを意味する「ベア」は相場に対して弱気を表しています。 何で雄牛が強気でクマが弱気なの？ いくつか説があるのですが、良く言われるのは、米国のトレーダーが売買を行うときの動作に動きが似ているからというものです。トレーダーは、「買い」のときに手を手前から後ろに動かし、「売り」のときは手を上から下に振り下ろします。雄牛が角を突き上げる動作が、トレーダーが「買い」を示す動作に似ているため、｢ブル」が強気を表し、クマが手を振り下ろす動作がトレーダーの「売り」の動作と似ているため、弱気を表すようになったというものです。 ブルとベア なにしろ株屋の世界に虚報が多いのは、日常茶飯事。嘘つきがスーツ着て歩いているようなものだと思う。学生時代の友人で、証券会社の営業にいった奴は真顔で嘘がつけて一人前。そのうち、嘘を本気で説いて回れるようになると言っていた。とかく嘘いつわりが多いので、去年の年末に「株を枕に年を越せ」と、祝儀相場だの１６０００円台どころか２００００円台もありうる、とラッパを吹いていた。荒っぽいホラを吹いているほど重宝される不思議な世界のようだ。個人投資家など、もともと顧客だと思っていない。なにしろ市場の主流派は、海外の機関投資家とは名ばかりの金融ギャングみたいな連中ばかり。彼らの肥やしとなる個人投資家をいかに浮き足だたせて、ボイラーの釜たきができるかで競っているのだから、株屋の広報やらアナリストは、みな買い推奨しかやりっこない。怪しげな材料を自作自演しながら、垂れ流して生きている存在だろう。さて、ここに来て急速に高騰材料を演出する動きがあるらしい。どうせノーポジションの野次馬である。この怪しげな言説の行く末も静かに観察してみたい。さあ、今日からは株屋も下に掲げた「怪文書」をネタにふたたび激しい買い推奨を始めることだろう。熊組（悲観論売り推奨派）はご注意めされよ。２００８年度版の「ザニューディール」のおでましだ。Bears beware. The New Deal of 2008 is in the works.合衆国財務省は税金還付小切手を世帯主らにバラまこうとしている---クソまみれのどツボにはまった不況をガチンコ阻止し、ブッシュ政権任期をいたわるべくだ、金曜日の事だが、ブッシュ氏は大統領執務室でのこれまで見聞きしたことがない初の会議となる、いわゆる「暴落阻止チーム」ＰＰＴを召集した。この「黒呪術使いの部隊」---とはいえ、れっきとした大統領直属金融市場作業部会なのだが、結成されたのは１９８７年の大暴落以来だ。The US Treasury is about to shower households with rebate cheques to head off a full-blown slump, and save the Bush presidency. On Friday, Mr Bush convened the so-called Plunge Protection Team for its first known meeting in the Oval Office. The black arts unit - officially the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - was created after the 1987 crash.顔ぶれを引率するのは、あの元ゴールドマン・サックス野郎、ハンク・ポールソン財務長官。ほれほれ「市場心理を嗅ぎ取る鼻を持つ男」だ。そしてベン・バーナンキ連邦制度準備委員会FRB議長や取引規制当局のキーマンも含まれている。The team is led by Treasury chief Hank Paulson, ex-Goldman Sachs, a man with a nose for market psychology, and includes Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and the key exchange regulators.ホワイトハウスには火事場の半鐘にあたいするするしっかとした根拠がある。日めくりをめくるたびに「世界絵巻」は暗転真っ黒けのケしている。バルチック海運指数（景況重要指数）は７週間も地上激突並の急降下中で、貨物輸送のへの字曲がりの直角降下を示唆している。シンガポールの経済は昨年第４四半期、電子と半導体の低迷が原因で３．２％も縮小した。The White House certainly has grounds for alarm. The global picture is darkening by the day. The Baltic Dry Index has been falling hard for seven weeks, signalling a downturn in bulk shipments. Singapore's economy contracted 3.2pc in the final quarter of last year, led by a slump in electronics and semiconductors.「ブッシュ版ニューディール」って無茶やりですら、国際経済のバブル崩壊後の引き潮の奔流を押し留められないだろう。その狙いがなせるものは、所詮札束で時を買うのである。アメリカのために！（まあ世界にとってもだが）アメリカの財政赤字が「健全にも」ＧＤＰの１．２％（$1,630億）じゃないか。（---そりゃあ、日本人の血を啜って吸いまくったんだからなあ。）アメリカ政府には財政電撃作戦やらかすファンドを為にど根性も持ち合わせがある。Not even a Bush New Deal can hold back the post-bubble tide that is drawing in across the globe. What it can do is buy time. Fortunately for America - and the world - the US budget deficit is a healthy 1.2pc of GDP ($163bn). Washington has the wherewithal to fund a fiscal blitz.Bush convenes Plunge Protection TeamBy Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business EditorLast Updated: 12:05am GMT 08/01/2008Bears beware. The New Deal of 2008 is in the works. The US Treasury is about to shower households with rebate cheques to head off a full-blown slump, and save the Bush presidency. On Friday, Mr Bush convened the so-called Plunge Protection Team for its first known meeting in the Oval Office. The black arts unit - officially the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - was created after the 1987 crash.Read more from Ambrose Evans-PritchardIt appears to have powers to support the markets in a crisis with a host of instruments, mostly by through buying futures contracts on the stock indexes (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell) and key credit levers. And it has the means to fry "short" traders in the hottest of oils.The team is led by Treasury chief Hank Paulson, ex-Goldman Sachs, a man with a nose for market psychology, and includes Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and the key exchange regulators.（中略）We face a version of Keynes's "extreme liquidity preference" in the 1930s - banks are hoarding money, and the main credit arteries of the financial system remain blocked after five months."In terms of any stimulus package, we're considering all options," said Mr Bush. This should be interesting to watch. The president is not one for half measures. He has already shown in Iraq and on biofuels that he will pursue policies a l'outrance once he gets the bit between his teeth.The only question is what the president can manage to push through a Democrat Congress.The Plunge Protection Team - long kept secret - was last mobilised to calm the markets after 9/11. It then went into hibernation during the long boom.Mr Paulson reactivated it last year, asking the staff to examine "systemic risk posed by hedge funds and derivatives, and the government's ability to respond to a financial crisis", he said.It seems he failed to spot the immediate threat from mortgage securities and the implosion of the commercial paper market. But never mind.The White House certainly has grounds for alarm. The global picture is darkening by the day. The Baltic Dry Index has been falling hard for seven weeks, signalling a downturn in bulk shipments. Singapore's economy contracted 3.2pc in the final quarter of last year, led by a slump in electronics and semiconductors.The Tokyo bourse kicked off with the worst New Year slide in more than half a century as the Seven Samurai exporters buckled. The Topix is down 24pc from its peak. If Japan and Singapore are stalling, it is a fair bet that China's efforts to tighten credit are starting to bite. Asia is not going to rescue us. On the contrary.Keep an eye on Japan, still the world's top creditor by far, with $3 trillion in net foreign assets. The Bank of Japan has been the biggest single source of liquidity for the global asset boom over the last five years. An army of investors - Japanese insurers and pension funds, housewives and hedge funds borrowing at near zero rates in Tokyo - have sprayed money across the Antipodes, South Africa, Brazil, Turkey, Iceland, Latvia, the US commercial paper market and the City of London.The Japanese are now bringing the money home, as they always do when the cycle turns. The yen has risen 13pc against the dollar and 12pc against sterling since the summer. We are witnessing the long-feared unwind of the "carry trade", valued by BNP Paribas in all its forms at $1.4 trillion.The US data is now relentlessly grim. Unemployment jumped from 4.7pc to 5pc - or 7.7m - in December, the biggest one-month rise since the dotcom bust and clear evidence that the housing crunch has spread to the real economy.（中略）Sovereign wealth funds stand ready to rescue banks, as they have already rescued Citigroup and UBS. But as Moody's pointed out this week, the estimated $2,500bn in lost wealth from the US house price crash is more than the entire net worth of all the sovereign wealth funds in the world.Add fresh losses as the property bubbles pop in Britain, Ireland, Australia, Spain, Greece, The Netherlands, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe, as they surely must unless central banks opt for inflation (which would annihilate bonds instead, with equal damage), and you can discount $1,500bn in further attrition.Not even a Bush New Deal can hold back the post-bubble tide that is drawing in across the globe. What it can do is buy time. Fortunately for America - and the world - the US budget deficit is a healthy 1.2pc of GDP ($163bn). Washington has the wherewithal to fund a fiscal blitz.Britain has no such luxury. Our deficit is 3pc of GDP at the top of the cycle. Gordon Brown has shut the Keynesian door.
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