Sato's U.S.A Life☆南部徒然日記

今日Statisticsの授業でProbability(Basic)の項目を勉強したのですが、面白い問題があったので、ここに載せてみます。
よかったらといてみてくださいね！

Ｑ. Guessing Birthday On there first date, Kelly asks Mike to guess the date of her birth, not including the year.
a. What is the probability that Mike will guess collectly?(ignore leap years.)

b. Would it be "unusual" for him to guess correctly on his first try?

c. If you were Kelly, and Mike did guess correctly on his first try, would you believe his claim that he made a lucky guess, or would you be convinced that he already knew when you were born?

d. If kelly asks Mike to guess her age, and Mike's guess is too high by 15 years, what is the probability that Mike and Kelly will have a second date?



どうです？面白い問題でしょ？

最初この問題を見たとき、私とオクサナは大爆笑でした。
とくに最後の問題なんか、

そんなの知るか～(笑)!

って叫びたくなってしまいました(笑)

そんなの個人個人でしょ?って

皆さんならどんな回答をしますか？

とりあえず、模範解答を載せておきます。

問題ｄの回答に注目です！

a. Probability = 1/365

b. Yes, it is unusual because 1/365= 0.003 < 0.05

c. Since Probability = 0.003 is so small, Correct answer is unlikely to occur by chance. It appears that Mike had inside information and was not operating on chance.

d. Depends. Most likely Mike was on the spot and gave an obviously incorrect responce in an attempt to handle the situation humorously. If Kelly appreciates his spontaneity and sence of humor, the probability may be quite high.


さすが模範解答。
ごもっともなお答えでした。


でも、これって本当に統計学なのか？？