中国、東シナ海で軍事演習
この間の中国の、東シナ海での軍事演習についてインタビューを受けました。ちょっと手抜きで申し訳ないですが、そのときの問答を英文のまま載せます。1) How did the Japanese perceive the recent Chinese naval exercise in the East China Sea? -> Even though the Japanese government does not say or take actions bythe exercise per say at this moment, the Japanese, both government and the people, are concerned and/or alert. The Japanese view it in extension of a series of Chinese ships invading Japanese EEZ in April-May 2010. Since then, the Japanese understands China is willing to expand its control to be able to access the Pacific, and Japan happens to be in between, which will be a growing concern. As you can see the timing, it happened the exact time when the US and Japan were in a bitter situation regarding Futenma issue. There is no wonder that China thinks the unstable US-Japan relations is the best time for China to go for a secure path to the Pacific for its navy. At this moment, I don't think China believed they could achieve this goal this year, but China must have been experimenting how far the it can go before US and Japan would respond.2) In terms of broader US - Japanese relations, what should the US do now that this recent Chinese naval exercise is completed? Should the US proceed with plans to deploy a carrier during the upcoming training exercise with ROK in the Yellow Sea?-> Thinking as my above comment, the US and Japan should show China wentfar enough and need to back off. In that sense, terminating a stalemate of the US-Japan relations was one good sign, and announcing a joint exercise with Korea, though postponed, was another. But the US should do more, and any kinds of signs that shows the US is still committed to the security in the Northeast Asia, is necesary, including proceeding with a carrier in the joint exercise with Korea. In the meanwhile, the military-to-military intercourse between the US andChina should be resumed, more seriously, not to escalate the situation any further. 3) In terms of its relations with Japan, should the US to be more or less assertive in terms of its military posture and US Navy exercises in the western Pacific?-> No, I don't think so. The US should be in the picture yet, since all the neighboring countries have designed and planned their defense structure, under the assumption that the US would be stationed in Japan, the ROK, etc. In order for the US military presence to fade, Japan needs to enhance its military capabilities that is designed to rely on the USFJ, while discussing with China, the ROK, and ASEAN on arms reduction, and make collective defense agreements on sea-lane defense between Japan and the Middle East. As far as none of this is happening, the US needs to stay. 4) How might the US - ROK naval exercise influence upcoming Japanese elections if at all?-> I don't think the exercise will influence the coming election. The focus is much more on domestic economy. 5) How is the increasing size and power of the PLAN influencing and /or impacting discussions in Japan about the US military's role in the region?-> The reality is while Japan cannot overtly say China is a threat because Japan already depends heavily on China economically, Japan hasn't give enough credit on China on its future and military ambitions. This concern will be expressed more indirectly as "the US military role is and continues to be important to Japan," rather than saying "China is a threat, so we need to team with the US to contain China," as a lesson from Koizumi time.
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